Thursday, June 7, 2012

Liquidity key during crisis

Nothing is certain in finance and economics, not even Greece's much feared exit from the euro, but in times of financial crisis the US dollar and US treasury bonds have unmatched track records as safe havens.
Market commentators talk about the flight to quality in times of strife, but in a world still laden with excess debt estimated at $20 to $30 trillion, liquidity trumps everything when fear and distrust freeze up the global banking system.
During the global financial crisis and last year's wild eurozone-triggered market swings, investors forgot their animosity towards the greenback and fear of America's near-zero interest rates and the Fed's so-called "money printing".
The US dollar's crucial role in greasing the financial system and global trade sent it soaring against almost every risk asset, as bank and exchange margin calls triggered a cascade of sell orders.
For a while, the euro was a pretender to this throne but now, being central to the crisis, it has left the US dollar as the currency king.
If Greece does leave the euro and low-value drachmas become its currency, the next main risk will be mass deposit withdrawals in Spain, Italy and Portugal. This event could lead to collapses of weak banks across Europe, and perhaps even the US and Asia.
So, hoarding cash in one of Global Finance's World's 50 Safest Banks is something worth think about.
But liquidity also means having easy access to your money. Fortunately, the four major Australian banks are in the top 20 safest in the world. Coupled with Canberra's $250,000 deposit guarantee, this will offer some comfort to domestic investors.
Former treasury secretary Ken Henry told the ABC this week that the Aussie dollar could also prove a safe-haven, although the current account deficit and commodity exposure do detract from this.
But the real tough decisions for investors will arise when the dust settles after another crisis. With extreme global imbalances still in place, depression or hyperinflation are two probable outcomes, depending on when and how central banks react, particularly the US Federal Reserve.
Since 2008, the US, British, European, Chinese and Japanese central banks and governments have pumped $US9 trillion into the global financial system, and deflation remains the key risk.
Maverick Eclectica hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry believes the world will see both. Depression will come first, as banks are forced to write off trillions of dollars of non-performing loans. This event - a debt-deflation downward spiral - was described by Irving Fisher in his 1930s Depression-era essay.
Hyperinflation will then follow as Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke lives up to his nickname and starts dropping greenbacks from the sky, as he promised in 2002 to try to get people to spend money.
Under a deflation scenario, where "the return of capital is more important than the return on your capital", the few remaining AAA-rated government bonds are the firm favourite place to park money.
Westpac interest rate strategist Russell Jones advocates US treasury bonds, UK gilts (bonds), and Norwegian and Australian bonds as his picks, while adding in the world's historical hard currency, gold, into his top five safe-haven picks.
Highly rated corporate bonds offer a riskier, if sweeter yield, but as Acquasia credit analyst Mark Bayley points out, it is important for investors to understand the "seniority" of debt, or what gets paid first when cash flow is crimped. Short-term, low-risk domestic annuities taken out with a safe bank or insurer are another safe option.
Under a high-inflation scenario, which could arise from concerted global money printing splurge, hard assets such as gold, silver and copper will really shine, while blue chip global equities will also be in high demand.
Legendary hedge fund manager Jim Rogers told CNBC this week that the US dollar, gold and farmland were his favoured assets.
Hayman Capital fund manager Kyle Bass has revealed that he spent $1 million buying 20 million 5¢ nickel coins to hedge against an inevitable surge in inflation because the metal will be worth more than the face value of the coins.
All blue chip stocks were trounced in 2008, but people must eat, drink and use electricity, so farm and utility stocks are on the list for most fund managers.