Nothing is certain in finance and economics, not even Greece's much
feared exit from the euro, but in times of financial crisis the US
dollar and US treasury bonds have unmatched track records as safe
havens.
Market commentators talk about the flight to quality in
times of strife, but in a world still laden with excess debt estimated
at $20 to $30 trillion, liquidity trumps everything when fear and
distrust freeze up the global banking system.
During the global
financial crisis and last year's wild eurozone-triggered market swings,
investors forgot their animosity towards the greenback and fear of
America's near-zero interest rates and the Fed's so-called "money
printing".
The US dollar's crucial role in greasing the financial
system and global trade sent it soaring against almost every risk asset,
as bank and exchange margin calls triggered a cascade of sell orders.
For
a while, the euro was a pretender to this throne but now, being central
to the crisis, it has left the US dollar as the currency king.
If
Greece does leave the euro and low-value drachmas become its currency,
the next main risk will be mass deposit withdrawals in Spain, Italy and
Portugal. This event could lead to collapses of weak banks across
Europe, and perhaps even the US and Asia.
So, hoarding cash in one of Global Finance's World's 50 Safest Banks is something worth think about.
But
liquidity also means having easy access to your money. Fortunately, the
four major Australian banks are in the top 20 safest in the world.
Coupled with Canberra's $250,000 deposit guarantee, this will offer some
comfort to domestic investors.
Former treasury secretary Ken
Henry told the ABC this week that the Aussie dollar could also prove a
safe-haven, although the current account deficit and commodity exposure
do detract from this.
But the real tough decisions for investors
will arise when the dust settles after another crisis. With extreme
global imbalances still in place, depression or hyperinflation are two
probable outcomes, depending on when and how central banks react,
particularly the US Federal Reserve.
Since 2008, the US, British,
European, Chinese and Japanese central banks and governments have pumped
$US9 trillion into the global financial system, and deflation remains
the key risk.
Maverick Eclectica hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry
believes the world will see both. Depression will come first, as banks
are forced to write off trillions of dollars of non-performing loans.
This event - a debt-deflation downward spiral - was described by Irving
Fisher in his 1930s Depression-era essay.
Hyperinflation will then
follow as Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke lives up to his nickname and starts
dropping greenbacks from the sky, as he promised in 2002 to try to get
people to spend money.
Under a deflation scenario, where "the
return of capital is more important than the return on your capital",
the few remaining AAA-rated government bonds are the firm favourite
place to park money.
Westpac interest rate strategist Russell
Jones advocates US treasury bonds, UK gilts (bonds), and Norwegian and
Australian bonds as his picks, while adding in the world's historical
hard currency, gold, into his top five safe-haven picks.
Highly
rated corporate bonds offer a riskier, if sweeter yield, but as
Acquasia credit analyst Mark Bayley points out, it is important for
investors to understand the "seniority" of debt, or what gets paid
first when cash flow is crimped. Short-term, low-risk domestic annuities
taken out with a safe bank or insurer are another safe option.
Under
a high-inflation scenario, which could arise from concerted global
money printing splurge, hard assets such as gold, silver and copper will
really shine, while blue chip global equities will also be in high
demand.
Legendary hedge fund manager Jim Rogers told CNBC this week that the US dollar, gold and farmland were his favoured assets.
Hayman
Capital fund manager Kyle Bass has revealed that he spent $1 million
buying 20 million 5¢ nickel coins to hedge against an inevitable surge
in inflation because the metal will be worth more than the face value of
the coins.
All blue chip stocks were trounced in 2008, but people
must eat, drink and use electricity, so farm and utility stocks are on
the list for most fund managers.